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Description
NATO dissolves before 2027? is a geopolitical event evaluating whether the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ceases to exist by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A Yes resolves if NATO dissolves via withdrawal of a majority of current member states, an official treaty repealing the North Atlantic Treaty, or another mechanism that ends NATO as a legal entity. Withdrawals count when notices of denunciation are officially issued, even if finalization occurs after the window. Resolution sources are NATO announcements and credible reporting.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO dissolves before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.