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Description
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? The market resolves to Yes if the United States formally initiates withdrawal or provides an official denunciation notice to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A notice triggers settlement regardless of subsequent delays or legal action; mere exit from NATO’s integrated military command does not qualify. Resolution relies on official US government or NATO announcements, with credible reporting as a fallback.
Event stats
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Markets
4
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| August 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.