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Description
Will a US ally get a nuclear weapon before 2027? A US ally is defined as a NATO member or Major Non-NATO Ally as of November 12, 2025. The market resolves to Yes if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources confirm that a non-nuclear US ally possessed a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear-sharing arrangement with no independent control over weapons, that does not qualify. An admission by Israel does not qualify for Yes. If the ally does not meet these criteria, the market resolves to No.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".