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Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by... on April 7–8, 2026, setting a two-week window for public, official declarations of a breach. A Yes resolves when the president, US government, or US military publicly states that the ceasefire has been broken by either side by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date, with credible official language signaling a breach. If no qualifying statement is made, the market resolves No.
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Rules
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required. Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice. Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.