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Description
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31, 2026. A Yes outcome occurs if Ukraine publicly pledges not to join NATO by the cutoff date, via unilateral or agreement-based commitments, including pledges made before the date or as a condition of broader peace talks. The primary resolution source is an official Ukraine announcement, with credible reporting acceptable as a fallback. No outcome occurs if no qualifying pledge is publicly announced by 11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2026.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify). An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.