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Description
Ukraine signs a peace deal with Russia by June 30, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine signs a written instrument that includes Ukraine and Russia as parties and ends hostilities or commits to a defined peace process by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The signature must be wet-ink or officially issued electronic for Ukraine, and principal resolution relies on credible reporting consensus.
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Related events
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.