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Description
US announces military base in Israel in 2026? is a binary market about whether the United States will publicly declare a long-term military presence in Israel by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution rests on an official declarative statement from the US government, US military, or authorized representatives that stationing will be ongoing beyond any current presence, with Israel defined to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms but exclude the West Bank and Gaza. If such an official announcement occurs, the Yes outcome settles regardless of later reversals or implementation status.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces military base in Israel in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.