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Description
The Oscars broadcast on ABC (March 15, 2026) will determine whether any of a wide set of names or terms appear spoken or shown during the ceremony. Each market resolves to Yes if the listed term is mentioned anywhere on the live broadcast or qualifying clips through March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, otherwise No; mentions include standalone words, compounds, or full names, counted even in prerecorded segments or AI-generated audio/video. Resolution source is the official ABC broadcast, with exclusions for commercials outside the show.
Event stats
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31
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Related events
Oscars 2026: Best Casting WinnerOscars BingoOscars 2026: Best Picture WinnerOscars 2026: Best Actor WinnerOscars 2026: Best Supporting Actress WinnerOscars 2026: Best Cinematography WinnerOscars 2026: Best Supporting Actor WinnerOscars 2026: Best Director WinnerOscars 2026: Best Actress WinnerOscars 2026: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chalamet 5+ times | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Epstein | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| President | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Trump | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ellison | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ukraine | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Netflix | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kylie | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Leo | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Elon | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Palestine | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Will Smith / Punch | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Shame | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Hottest | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Sex | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Alien | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Peace | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Zionist / Zionism | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| White House | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Middle East | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Greenland | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ice Out / Fuck Ice | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Polymarket | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Dream Big | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mom | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Charlie Kirk | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Anthropic / Claude | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ballet | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Opera | Yes | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the scheduled broadcast of the Oscars on ABC. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Commercials which are not part of the show itself will not qualify toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). If no such stream is aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the official ABC broadcast of this event.