December 31, 2026: El Salvador’s bitcoin holdings reach or exceed $1,000,000,000 at any point by December 31, 2026, with resolution based on ARKHAM INTEL tracker or government announcements, subject to credible reporting if the tracker is unavailable.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holding officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.