September 30: El Salvador’s officially held bitcoin value reaches or exceeds $1,000,000,000 at any point by September 30, 2025. Settlement follows ARKHAM INTEL tracker readings or government announcements confirming the threshold, with credible reporting as a fallback if the tracker is inaccessible.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holding officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.