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Description
Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30? xAI must publicly release and make accessible a diffusion-based large language model before 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. A release is valid if announced by xAI and publicly accessible (including open beta or rolling waitlist), while closed or private access does not count. The model must define diffusion or iterative denoising in its core text-generation process, as stated in official documentation or statements. Resolution arises from xAI announcements confirmed by credible reporting when needed.
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Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, xAI releases a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any xAI dLMM will be considered to be released if it is launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.