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Description
xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30, 2026. A Yes outcome occurs if any xAI Grok model attains a FrontierMath score of 25%+ or higher as measured by the Epoch AI Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (Tier 1–3) by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The primary resolution source is Epoch AI reporting; a credible-reporting consensus may also settle if needed. Scores are drawn from leaderboard standings and exclude studies not listed on the official FrontierMath leaderboard.
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Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by FJune 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.