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Description
A 100kt meteor strike in 2026? markets whether a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth’s atmosphere with energy ≥100 kilotons in 2026. Resolution follows NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data (Impact Energy in kt). If the dataset is incomplete by Feb 28, 2027 or unavailable, credible sources such as ESA, IAWN, DoD, or NASA press releases may settle the market based on scientific consensus.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100kt meteor strike in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.