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Description
A 2026 occurrence of a natural meteoroid (bolide) exploding in Earth’s atmosphere with energy at or above 10 kilotons. The market resolves to Yes if such an event happens between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, based on NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data (Impact Energy kt column). If data is unavailable or incomplete by Feb 28, 2027, or the data feed is permanently down, settlement may rely on credible consensus from ESA, IAWN, DoD, or NASA press releases.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.