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Description
Natural disasters in 2026 are tracked through a Yes/No market with a binary outcome. Yes resolves if a 2026 Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the United States, a major meteor with 10kt+ energy strikes, a VEI 6 or greater volcanic eruption occurs, or an 8.5+ earthquake happens. If none of these conditions occur in 2026 ET, the market resolves to No. The market may stay open through February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET if required information is pending from sources.
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Related events
5kt meteor strike in 2026?Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?How many Tornadoes in the US in March?How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Disaster in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf