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Description
Tornado counts in the United States for 2026 are tracked monthly by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). The market resolves to the first published monthly total on the NCEI Tornadoes Time Series page after the scheduled release time, using only final year-to-date data for 2026; preliminary figures published after the scheduled time determine the outcome, but earlier preliminaries do not. If data is unavailable by the next scheduled publication ET, the market remains open or resolves using the most recent complete month, or an alternate credible source if NCEI becomes unavailable.
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8
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Related events
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?Natural Disaster in 2026?How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?How many Tornadoes in the US in March?How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Markets
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count. As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.