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Description
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? tracks whether any magnitude-9.0+ earthquake occurs anywhere on Earth from December 8, 2025 at 12:00 PM ET through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution follows USGS Earthquake Hazards Program announcements; if a qualifying event appears but is not yet reflected in the resolution source, the market may stay open until January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake is recorded. After a qualifying event is registered, the market remains open 24 hours to absorb magnitude revisions, then settles to the latest available data.
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Markets
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.