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Description
Category 4 hurricanes (130–156 mph) making landfall in the conterminous United States can only occur if an official National Hurricane Center advisory reports a landfall at that intensity. The market resolves to Yes if any storm meets this threshold and makes landfall by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, per NHC advisories published through that date. If no qualifying landfall is reported in that window, the market resolves to No. Initial NHC advisories may be used for qualification, with later corrections considered only if they indicate a qualifying incident.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.