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Description
China x Japan military clash before 2027? concerns whether the PRC and Japan engage in a military encounter between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A Yes resolves only if direct force is used in a clash between Chinese and Japanese forces, per the defined incidents; non-violent actions do not count. The resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.