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Description
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? concerns whether a direct military encounter between the People's Republic of China and Philippine forces occurs between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. A Yes settlement requires a concrete incident involving use of force, such as missile strikes or exchange of gunfire, or an intentional ship ramming causing definite damage, with non-violent actions and minor damage excluded. The China Coast Guard is considered part of the military for this purpose, while the Philippine Coast Guard is not; credible-reporting consensus will settle the market.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.