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Description
Xi Jinping purge indicators for 2026 involve the removal, resignation, or expulsion of key Chinese leaders by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A yes resolves if credible reporting describes any listed official’s purge-triggered exit from a primary post or CCP expulsion; a no if no such report emerges. Resolutions rely on official Chinese government statements and a consensus of credible reporting.
Event stats
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Markets
9
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Top market
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wang Yi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Cai Qi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Li Qiang | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wang Huning | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Zhao Leji | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ding Xuexiang | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Li Xi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Zhang Shengmin | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Dong Jun | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor. 2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Qualifying announcements and reporting of a purge before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/expulsion goes into effect. A listed individual leaving office at the end of a regularly scheduled term, or being removed/resigning from office without a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese Government and a consensus of credible reporting.