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Description
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? This market resolves to Yes if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Territory under ROC administration, including inhabited islands, qualifies; uninhabited islands do not. Resolution relies on official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent UN Security Council member, or a consensus of credible reporting if needed.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.