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Description
EU dissolves before 2027? is a binary market about whether the European Union will cease to exist as a legal entity by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to Yes if more than half of current member states formally withdraw, or if all member states adopt a treaty repealing or nullifying the EU treaties, or if the EU otherwise ceases to exist. Withdrawal is triggered when a state officially initiates withdrawal or notifies the European Council, even if finalization occurs later. The primary resolution source is official EU information, with credible reporting as a fallback.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU dissolves before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.