Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Fed decisions on the target upper bound of the federal funds rate will be set by the Federal Open Market Committee at its upcoming meetings on January 27–28, 2026; March 17–18, 2026; and April 28–29, 2026. Each meeting yields a new upper bound and a change relative to the prior level. A qualifying cut lowers the prior upper bound, a qualifying hike raises it, and a qualifying pause leaves it unchanged. If a meeting yields a different combination than listed, the market resolves to Other; emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings do not apply. Resolution comes from the FOMC statement after each meeting and the Fed’s rate history page for the level and change.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
9
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut–Pause–Pause | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Cut–Pause–Cut | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Cut–Cut–Pause | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Cut–Cut–Cut | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pause–Pause–Pause | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pause–Pause–Cut | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pause–Cut–Pause | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pause–Cut–Cut | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm