Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Fed decisions on the target federal funds rate will be determined by the FOMC at three meetings: March 17–18, 2026; April 28–29, 2026; and June 16–17, 2026. Each outcome depends on whether the new upper bound is lower (cut), higher (hike), or unchanged (pause) relative to the prior level; only these three meetings count, with “Other” if a different combination occurs or an emergency cut outside the schedule. Settles on the basis of the FOMC statement after each meeting, as published by the Federal Reserve and corroborated on the Fed’s open-market site.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
9
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut–Pause–Pause | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Cut–Pause–Cut | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Cut–Cut–Pause | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Cut–Cut–Cut | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pause–Pause–Pause | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pause–Pause–Cut | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pause–Cut–Pause | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pause–Cut–Cut | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm