Price history
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Description
Fed rate-cut expectations focus on changes to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. Between December 16, 2025 and the January 2026 FOMC meeting (January 27–28, 2026), the market resolves Yes if the upper bound is decreased at any point. If no qualifying rate cut occurs by the January meeting and no February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET cutoff is met, the market resolves No. Emergency cuts qualify; the Fed's official site is the primary resolution source, with credible reporting as a fallback.
Event stats
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Markets
8
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Related events
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January Meeting | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March Meeting | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April Meeting | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June Meeting | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July Meeting | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| September Meeting | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| October Meeting | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December Meeting | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.