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Description
Houthis successfully targeting shipping is evaluated by whether Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the date cutoffs 11:59 PM AST. Attacks on military vessels do not count; interceptions or debris-only damage do not count. Seizure means forced boarding and control of a commercial vessel. The primary resolution source is credible reporting consensus, with optional 3-day attribution window if attribution remains unresolved at the deadline.
Event stats
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Markets
3
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Markets
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.