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Description
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026. A Yes resolves if Iran publicly pledges to end all enrichment by that deadline, whether unilaterally or within a broader deal, with the agreement or pledge counting even if not yet enacted. The No outcome covers all other paths or delays, with credible reporting as the primary resolution source.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.