Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? is a question of public commitment by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026 (11:59 PM ET). A Yes resolves when Iran publicly pledges that commercial vessels may transit without Iranian authorization, fees, or other restrictions, even if as part of a wider agreement; No covers any lack of such public commitment by the deadline. Credible official statements or announcements from Iran, plus credible reporting consensus, settle the market.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
1
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify. A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify. An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.