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2
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Related events
Republican 2026 Senate odds hit___ by March 31?Republican 2026 House odds hit___ by March 31?2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?Republican House Odds Up or Down Week of February 23?Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsWhich party will win the Senate in 2026?Which party will win the House in 2026?Texas Senate Election WinnerOregon Governor Election WinnerRepublican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, the Republican Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?tid=1764045739181) for any four-hour period ending by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Republican Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Democratic Party in more individual minutes than the Democratic Party is ahead of the Republican Party during a qualifying time period. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the House in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/will-the-republicans-flip-the-democrats-for-the-2026-us-house-elections-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.