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Description
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...? is a binary market addressing whether the U.S. government formally designates a screwworm outbreak in livestock as a national emergency by a set of specified dates. The market resolves to Yes if the federal government issues a formal national emergency, extraordinary emergency, or equivalent emergency declaration by the stated deadline; statements or non-declarative orders do not qualify. Renewals without explicit new screwworm-related modification do not qualify. The primary resolution sources are the Federal Register or official White House, Agriculture Department, and related agency publications, with credible reporting as a fallback.
Event stats
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Markets
4
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| August 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| October 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.