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Description
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2025. A ceasefire requires a publicly announced, mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the RSF and SAF by 2025-12-31 23:59 ET. If an official agreement is reached before the deadline, the market resolves Yes regardless of when the halt takes effect. Informal pauses do not count; humanitarian truces do not settle the market. A peace framework qualifies only if it includes an explicit, dated halt in fighting; otherwise it does not. Resolution relies on official announcements from both sides or a credible, broad media consensus confirming an official ceasefire.
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4
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.