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Description
Trump out as President before 2027? is a political outcome market anchored to the lifetime of 2026, resolving to Yes if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or if a sustained Twenty-Fifth Amendment invocation confirms presidential inability. A resignation or removal announced before the end date resolves to Yes immediately, regardless of when it takes effect. Temporary removals or impeachment without removal do not qualify; a two-thirds House and Senate confirmation of inability under the Twenty-Fifth Amendment Section 4 does count toward Yes.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.