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Description
Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory is a special-election market scheduled for April 21, 2026. It resolves by the margin between valid Yes and No votes, measured as the absolute percentage difference of valid votes for each option, with ties yielding No Pass. If the vote is postponed, the market remains open until results occur, and if not held by the deadline, it resolves to No Pass. A consensus of credible reporting and the official Virginia Department of Elections results govern resolution.
Event stats
24h volume
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Liquidity
Markets
7
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass 15%+ | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pass 12-15% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pass 9-12% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pass 6-9% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pass 3-6% | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pass <3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| No Pass | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).