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Description
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31, 2026? The market resolves Yes if the United States publicly accepts continued uranium enrichment by Iran by May 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET), including deals that include restrictions or terms. A definitive acceptance can come from a presidential or authorized government representative or through a formally established treaty or deal between the U.S. and Iran. If no such definitive agreement is announced by the deadline, the market resolves No.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrichment of Uranium | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Oil Sanction Relief | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Unfreeze Iranian Assets | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.