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Description
Who will be the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet? The market resolves to the first departure from the Cabinet, defined as any resignation or removal from a cabinet-level position, with None before 2027 if no departure occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An early resignation/removal triggers Yes immediately, and if multiple leave at once the first leaver by time or alphabetically by last name wins.
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29
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| J.D. Vance | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Marco Rubio | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Scott Bessent | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pete Hegseth | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Doug Burgum | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Brooke Rollins | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Howard Lutnick | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Scott Turner | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Sean Duffy | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Chris Wright | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Linda McMahon | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Doug Collins | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Lee Zeldin | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Susie Wiles | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Russell T. Vought | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| John Ratcliffe | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Jamieson Greer | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mike Waltz | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kelly Loeffler | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Person A | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Person B | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Person C | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Person D | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Person E | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Person F | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Person G | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.