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Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
Description
Israel or its leaders face a potential genocide ruling from an international court by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if the ICC, ICJ, or aUN-established ad hoc tribunal issues a judgment or conviction finding genocide by that deadline; preliminary findings do not qualify, and a first-instance judgment counts even if on appeal. Resolution sources include official statements from the ICC, ICJ, or qualifying tribunals, or a credible reporting consensus when needed.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.