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Description
Hamas disarmament in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET is the focus. The market resolves to Yes if Hamas officially announces it will disarm, including partial disarmament as part of an acknowledged process, by the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. Official leadership announcements or credible reporting confirming a formal policy commitment are required for YES.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
6
Market highlights
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| November 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 28, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.