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Description
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? is a binary market assessing whether active regular U.S. military personnel physically enter the Gaza Strip itself by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Entry must occur on land within Gaza’s terrestrial territory; maritime or airspace incursions do not count. Excludes enters to buffer zones under Israeli control, diplomatic entourages, contractors, advisors, and special operations forces. Settlement follows a broad consensus of credible reporting indicating a floor-level entry into Gaza.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify. High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.