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Description
Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election offers two possible outcomes: a candidate may win outright in the first round, or no candidate reaches the 50% threshold and a second round follows. The market resolves to Yes if any candidate secures a first‑round victory; otherwise, it resolves to No. If the first round result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. Settlement relies on credible reporting consensus or, if necessary, the official results published by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
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Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).