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Description
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? This event resolves as Yes if Israel initiates a large-scale ground operation involving more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If such an operation does not occur by then, the outcome is No. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.