Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30, 2026? A Yes resolves if the Islamic Republic’s ruling structures are dissolved or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, based on a broad consensus of credible reporting. Routine reforms, elections, or leadership changes do not qualify; a clear break in continuity is required, such as a provisional government, revolutionary council, or new constitution.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
1
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Iran leadership change by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Iran strike on US military by March 31?Who will enter Iran by June 30?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.