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Description
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...? is a prediction market tracking whether one or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0+ occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the specified dates. Resolution follows USGS Earthquake Hazards Program data; if a large event appears late, a 24-hour confirmation window applies before final settlement. If a qualifying event is not yet present in USGS within the window, a credible alternative source may determine settlement after the end of the month following resolution time.
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Markets
3
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24h gainer
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Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
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Markets
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.