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Description
Another US strike on Venezuela by...?: A Yes resolves if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported by the specified date (ET). A strike must physically impact ground territory within Venezuela; air-to-ground actions on rivers, ports, or any part of Venezuelan territory count, while intercepted or surface-to-air engagements do not. The primary resolution source is credible reporting consensus, and the market remains open until two days after the cutoff; if no consensus-confirmed strike is reported by then, it resolves to No.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
5
Market highlights
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Top market
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Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 10 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| January 17 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| January 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.