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Description
China ballistic missile launch by December 31, 2026 is tracked if China conducts a ballistic missile launch (including ICBMs, SLBMs, and ballistic anti-ship missiles) between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Other missile types such as cruise missiles or surface-to-air/rocket artillery do not count toward a Yes. Resolution relies on publicly available, credible reporting from official statements, UN monitoring, or respected media sources.
Event stats
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1
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Top market
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Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China ballistic missile launch by December 31? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.