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Description
US x China Military clash before 2027? is a binary event about any direct military encounter between PRC and U.S. forces through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A clash includes uses of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, or gunfire between Chinese and United States military forces; coast guards count as part of each nation’s military for this market. Non-violent actions do not resolve this market.YES occurs only when credible reporting confirms a direct engagement within the period; otherwise, the market resolves to No.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x China Military clash before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.