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Description
Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? is a yes/no market assessing whether credible reporting confirms that the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro was staged or pre-arranged by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; a Yes requires credible confirmation that the capture was facilitated or agreed in advance, with statements from the U.S. government qualifying as evidence.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro was staged or pre-arranged with Maduro (i.e., facilitated, permitted, or agreed to in advance such that Maduro’s capture was not the result of an adversarial raid) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from the U.S. government claiming that the operation was staged or pre-arranged will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If no broad consensus has been reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.