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Description
The question asks whether the United States will commence a military offensive in 2026 to establish control over any portion of Mexican land by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting; if such a military action begins, the Yes outcome wins. If not, the No outcome wins. Land areas currently controlled by either nation at market creation are treated as their sovereign territory for the purposes of the rule.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.