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Description
The 2026 question asks whether the United States will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of land within a Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying invasion is defined by a land occupation that becomes de facto sovereign control, with the relevant country identified as the one whose land is controlled. Eligible Latin American states include Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti. Settlement relies on a consensus of credible reporting.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.