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Description
Trump’s 2026 approval-rating market uses Silver Bulletin’s daily approval figures to determine whether any date in 2026 reaches or exceeds a listed threshold. If a data point on any date equals or surpasses the specified value, the Yes outcome for that threshold resolves in the affirmative; otherwise, it resolves No. Finalization rules apply: once a new data point is published, the prior point is finalized, and if December 31’s rating isn’t published by January 4, 2027 at 12:00 PM ET, the market uses all earlier datapoints. If Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable, RealClearPolitics serves as the fallback data source. Resolution is based on the green-trend line value for the specified date on the Silver Bulletin poll aggregator page. This event includes seven threshold markets corresponding to 44% through 50%.
Event stats
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7
Market highlights
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Markets
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.